hot dang guys calm down. Neither one of you is trying to insult the other.
Let me clarify my position, as I was the one that brought this topic up.
There has been a lot of questioning this year on why the Finance Commission does things the way they do, and C. Gunderson has answered them all.
That's not to say that I definitively agree with all his answers. Senator Raguse and some of the other senators have indicated that they think it is un-good to have a large amount in our Reserve Fund. I don't have a problem with this directly; my problem is that it seems to me that we aren't spending our money very well. I think this is what the other Senators mean. Every person in Student Government wants to spend the money we allocate in the best way possible - although we usually disagree on how that is.
C. Gunderson and C. Brown (with the Finance Commission) made the changes this year that they believed would be the best spending of the money. I think we all agree that the money we collect should all be spent by organizations. Tier II organizations do not spend all their money. The 6-person conference rule was added (I believe) so that organizations spend more of the money they are allocated. After all, we have a fee so organizations can spend it.
My argument here is not to lower the amount that organizations can spend. My idea is another way to increase the amount that organizations can spend, by reducing the rollover and essentially giving it to the organizations that do spend it (Tier I).
If we knew for certain what Tier II orgs would spend, this would not even be an issue; we would already budgeting for precisely what they spend. Since we don't, we budget for the full amount they could spend because it is the safest.
However, if we know it is statistically probably (say, with 95% certainty) that Tier II orgs will not spend X% of the money they are allowed, it is statistically probably that we would be safe budgeting X% less. C. Gunderson gave his reasons why statistical probability is not enough. S. Nagel suggested a safety net, which in this case would only be used every 20 years.
I think C. Gunderson is right, the Reserve Fund safety net probably isn't ideal. In the long term, we would be forced to keep that X% in the Reserve Fund all the time. If we have the money sitting unused in the Reserve Fund account, it may as well be sitting unused in the Tier II budget account.
I do think this has a chance of being feasible in the short term, however. If it takes ~20 years before we need to use a fraction of our safety net (most likely to go over by only a little), we will have ideally had 20 years of more efficient spending. As C. Gunderson mentions and I agree with, long term this can't work and we'd have to go back to our current model. I believe we disagree on how long term long-term is. If we can determine that this scenario takes 200 years to play out, then we'll all be using beaver teeth as currency and downloading knowledge directly into our brain anyway.
Still, this is only one Senator's idea. There are probably others, and some might work better. Or perhaps this idea could still work with some tweaking. I'm not sure - I stopped at Econ 201 (more finance courses next year, though) - but I think it is at least worth talking about civilly.
I am not about to take action on this idea, as doing it without the proper planning is foolhardy in the extreme. I have not determined the 95% statistical likelihood, though I think we could find one (let me know if you'd like my qualifications

). This is why I brought it up and why I am discussing it: to determine feasibility.